C’est l’AV

A friendly letter to a Labour MP

Dear Mrs. Goodegg,

Imagine, if you will, it is the evening on the last day of campaigning before the General Election and you decide to go out and canvass just one final household.  An elderly couple answer the door and your heart sinks as they tell you that they are lifelong Tory voters.  In the hallway you see there are three books.  The first is the well worn family Bible, but above this, given pride of place, The Constitution of Liberty by F A Hayek, littered on every page with Post-it notes.  The third book, better thumbed still is The Downing Street Years by the Iron Lady herself.  Ouch. 

Nevertheless, unperturbed, you decide to have a go at winning their vote.  They invite you in, moving aside a cluttered heap of Ayn Rand novels, making room for you to sit, and you start a long political conversation.

To your surprise a mutual respect begins to grow between you and the couple and, by the end, you have, amazingly, not only convinced them to lend you their vote but, furthermore, when you finally walk out the door an hour later, they are apologising for the catastrophic error of their ways and for their lifelong belief in free market capitalism. 

They are now, both, committed socialists.  They promise to re-read Das Kapital in a new light and they ask you if you could send round a membership form for the Fabian Society.  They express a particular interest in joining any national campaign to bring back the ‘Closed Shop’!

You leave, feeling pretty pleased with your powers of persuasion.

But how would you feel if I told you that that conversation, those, two, converted former libertarians, might well have just cost you the election?  Of course that’s impossible, isn’t it?

Well, quite bizarrely, it’s perfectly possible if the election is to be held under AV.

Let me continue with my story.

At the count, on Thursday, you watch as the first preference votes are piled up.  You feel you must have done well, because your pile is nearly two feet taller than anyone else’s. However, the race for second place is, much tighter.  It looks too close to call.

A little while later all but yourself, the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates have been eliminated.  You are still well out in front but there is going to have to be a recount for second place. 

You are happy to notice that your strategic decision, during the campaign, not to attack the Lib Dems too much appears to be paying off.  As you cast your eye over the counting tables, it’s clear that well over half of the Lib Dem voters have selected you as their second choice.  This, despite the national picture, where the camaraderie of the coalition seems to have been shared by the voters.

A little while later, the recount is complete, and the standings are as follows:

A Goodegg - Labour - 26 000

W Washy - Liberal Democrat - 18 000

F Market - Conservative - 17 999

The conservative candidate is eliminated, and her votes are redistributed.

Unfortunately you pick up very few of her second preference votes. The Lib Dem candidate, on the other hand, gains virtually all the transferred votes.

On the final count, you are well behind, in second place.  You sigh “never mind, C’est la vie”.  You try to convince yourself that, maybe, in four years time you’ll get back in. 

Now, here’s the nub, if you had you not made your trip on Tuesday evening, the standings, with three candidates remaining, would have been as follows:

A Goodegg - Labour - 25 998

W Washy - Liberal Democrat - 18 000

F Market - Conservative - 18 001

The Liberal Democrat candidate would have been eliminated and, upon redistribution of his votes you would, in our example, have been returned to Westminster with a large majority (thanks to your friendly stance towards Mr. Washy).

Alternatively and bizarrely, if two of your “supporters” in the above hypothetical scenario had “tactically voted” for the Conservative candidate they would have counteracted the converted couple and you would have won the seat.

AV is not fairer, it’s not more proportional.  It is as dishonourable as it is courage sapping. The increased prior expectation of coalitions makes a mockery of manifestos and it encourages candidates to enter into bullying alliances, rather that principled discussion.

If we do get AV, this sort of strange result will certainly become an ironic feature of every general election.

Headlines like “Former Labour MP says, I only wish more of my supporters had voted Tory” may become commonplace!

Yours sincerely,

George Pender

ps 

Phew. Danger averted. We won the referendum. Of course that dosn’t prove we were right but it does mean that, for now, we get to keep our electoral system.

It is worth noting that the proposals for an elected house of lords involve elections by STV (AV being a simplified version of STV) which still has this problem of, potentially, punishing candidates for gaining votes.  

On the other hand there is a real danger of getting party list PR which would give a horrendous amount of power to the political parties so...

last time modified: July 15, 2011, 7:45 a.m.